Having had a lengthy discussion with the three other coaches on our collegiate staff regarding a hitter’s approach with RISP, I thought I’d make an attempt to analyze how professional hitters might alter their approach in RBI situations. Specifically, we’re focusing on runners at 3rd or 2nd/3rd with less than 2 outs. We have eliminated all situations in which a runner resides on 1st since a coach/manager may elect to employ a strategic play (e.g. a hit & run). We have also eliminated all bunt attempts from this study. We truly want to evaluate the approach a hitter may take without external factors such as managerial strategy.
With a proven, established approach already in place in our college program, a new perspective provided the suggestion to be more aggressive and “eat the RBI early.” That is, a hitter in an RBI situation ought to look for something he can hit early in the count. This philosophy to “look for something you can hit versus drive” may allow one to avoid more strikeouts, but will it lead to success?
First, let’s establish the “standard” approach. Seems to me, the simplest situation is 0 on, 0 out. A hitter’s goal is to simply get on base. With 500,011 MLB PA’s from 2002-2012, this is clearly enough data to establish our standard. (Other situations such as 0 on, 1 out could be considered, however certain nuances of the game could affect the P/PA. For example, a 1-pitch AB by the leadoff hitter may force the second hitter of the inning to take a pitch to avoid the quick inning.) Nevertheless, we find 3.8175 P/PA with 0 on and 0 outs.
Quick note on the “standard” approach: did you include 1st inning leadoff batters? It’s a tiny part of the sample, but I wonder if it could give the data any bias due to actual leadoff (1st in the batting order) hitters taking more pitches per plate appearance.
Chris/1, great point. We contemplated this for some time and ultimately came to the conclusion to include them in the sample. Our thinking was that a leadoff hitter the first time through the lineup should have the same approach (or very similar) whether they lead off the first, second, or third innings. The point being that he’s facing a new pitcher (to see/understand his pitches for the benefit of his future PA’s as well as his teammates). Well, if we did this for the starter, we should consider doing the same for relievers. It was difficult for us to determine where to draw this line, so we decided to just include them all.